Hi Mavix, great piece, do you know what the software mix would have to become (@ 30% today according to your piece) to reach the 10-12% margin? Is there any upside potential to the 10-12% margin suggested by the management (seems relatively low for a mission critical SaaS that theoretically shouldn't be price sensitive)?
Is there also upside to the 7% long term revenue CAGR? I'm looking at it from the angle of drone applications (delivery, surveilance, military, defense, etc.), eVTOL (I like $BLDE), and emerging countries like India's infrastructure rollout.
Also wanted to ask about competition, when you say they have bigger companies with more capital in the space, are these companies pure play? Do these larger competitors actually have more revenue in mission-critical aviation software/services, or do they just have larger total revenue in unrelated businesses?
Given mgmt's estimates, they think they have about 13% market share in their current business lines (addressable market size of 3.2bn), do you think that's a fair assessment? I'm curious whether the the market is an oligopoly where Frequentis is a distant 2nd or 3rd, or perhaps the market is extremely fragmented with Frequentis commanding the largest market share? I think the latter scenario make things a lot more interesting.
I think there are maybe just a few smaller companies with such a focus like Frequentis, especially in the ATM segment. Competitors here are for example big (defence) companies like L3Harris, Thales, Indra Systems, Honeywell. But of course their revenues are mainly from other divisions. But I can't estimate how big Frequentis market share really is tbh.
very interesting biz! thanks for writing about it
Thanks - interesting write up!
Interesting stock, thanks
Hi Mavix, great piece, do you know what the software mix would have to become (@ 30% today according to your piece) to reach the 10-12% margin? Is there any upside potential to the 10-12% margin suggested by the management (seems relatively low for a mission critical SaaS that theoretically shouldn't be price sensitive)?
Is there also upside to the 7% long term revenue CAGR? I'm looking at it from the angle of drone applications (delivery, surveilance, military, defense, etc.), eVTOL (I like $BLDE), and emerging countries like India's infrastructure rollout.
Also wanted to ask about competition, when you say they have bigger companies with more capital in the space, are these companies pure play? Do these larger competitors actually have more revenue in mission-critical aviation software/services, or do they just have larger total revenue in unrelated businesses?
Given mgmt's estimates, they think they have about 13% market share in their current business lines (addressable market size of 3.2bn), do you think that's a fair assessment? I'm curious whether the the market is an oligopoly where Frequentis is a distant 2nd or 3rd, or perhaps the market is extremely fragmented with Frequentis commanding the largest market share? I think the latter scenario make things a lot more interesting.
I think there are maybe just a few smaller companies with such a focus like Frequentis, especially in the ATM segment. Competitors here are for example big (defence) companies like L3Harris, Thales, Indra Systems, Honeywell. But of course their revenues are mainly from other divisions. But I can't estimate how big Frequentis market share really is tbh.
Correction, software @70%